Latest Market Report on the Automotive Aftermarket: In the First Quarter of 2026, New-Energy Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Sessions Soar by 20%, with Xiaomi and AITO Emerging as Growth Dark Horses

The F6 Big Data Research Institute has released its latest report: in the first quarter of 2026, the automotive aftermarket will exhibit extreme polarization, with new-energy vehicle service visits rising against the trend by 20%, driven in part by a year-on-year surge of 142% for the Xiaomi brand due to last year’s low base. Meanwhile, traditional internal-combustion-engine vehicle business continues to face mounting pressure, with output value declining by 5%. The era of digital and intelligent transformation—characterized by “one side gains as the other loses”—is now accelerating across the board.

Research Findings Summary

Changes in output value per unit

In the first quarter, both aftermarket output value and service visits declined by 3% year on year, reflecting generally subdued end-consumer demand; however, the year-on-year decline narrowed in March, signaling signs of a recovery.

In the first quarter, the year-on-year trend in factory visit counts across different chain formats reversed: mid- and large-sized chain stores saw an 8% year-on-year decline, significantly larger than that observed at standalone stores and small chains.

In the first quarter, both tire and maintenance service average transaction values increased year over year, with the tire business’s average transaction value posting a notable quarter-over-quarter rise of 6% compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.

Category Sales

In the first quarter, essential travel and safety categories such as tires and batteries posted growth, while traditional maintenance and repair items like motor oil generally declined, reflecting a structural trend in the industry characterized by strong demand for essential safety components and weak performance in routine maintenance products.

In the first quarter, regional performance revealed a marked divergence between the southern and northern markets: while multiple product categories in the south posted growth, most categories in the north continued to decline, reflecting weaker market resilience.

In the first quarter, the average prices of gear oil and fuel filters rose significantly year on year, with increases of 7% each. Looking at the quarterly trend, prices for these two product categories have generally exhibited a modest but steady upward trajectory in recent years.

Automobile brand

In the first quarter, among major automakers, BYD posted an 8% year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries, leading the pack; Mercedes-Benz and Chery followed closely with a 3% year-on-year rise; meanwhile, most other brands, including Volkswagen, continued to see year-on-year declines in deliveries.

In the first quarter, new-energy vehicle registrations increased by 20% year on year, while gasoline-car registrations declined by 5% year on year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, gasoline-car registrations fell by 7%, whereas new-energy vehicle registrations plunged by as much as 12%.

In the first quarter, among the leading new-energy vehicle brands in the aftermarket, Xiaomi saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 142% in the number of vehicle service visits, driven by the low base in the same period of 2025; AITO followed closely, with a year-on-year growth of 67%.

Industry Trends

In 2025, the total number of vehicles in circulation will reach 366 million, with new-energy vehicles accounting for 12.01% of the total; furthermore, 103 cities nationwide will each have a vehicle stock exceeding 1 million.

In the first quarter, the share of factory visits in third-tier and lower-tier cities approached 44%. In recent years, the market share of such visits in lower-tier markets has continued to rise, clearly demonstrating the vast growth potential and business opportunities in these underserved segments.

Based on the performance in the first quarter of 2026 and the projected monthly trends for 2025, the cumulative output value and number of service instances in the aftermarket are expected to see year-on-year declines of no more than 2% in the first half of 2026.

Key Data Interpretation

01. Cumulative output value/units in 2026 year-on-year

In the first quarter of 2026, both the cumulative output value of the automotive aftermarket and the number of vehicle service visits declined by 3% year on year, reflecting overall weak consumer demand. The cautious, wait-and-see attitude among consumers, coupled with the dilutive effect of the growing stock of new-energy vehicles on traditional automotive aftermarket business, have both exerted a certain degree of downward pressure on current market performance.

02. Month-over-month and Year-over-Year Comparison of Vehicle Counts by Power Type

In the first quarter of 2026, the number of new-energy vehicles entering service centers increased by 20% year on year, while the number of gasoline-powered vehicles declined by 5% year on year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the number of gasoline-powered vehicles entering service centers fell by 7%, but their output value dropped by only 5%, indicating that, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the average transaction value per gasoline-car owner rose sharply in the short term. By contrast, range-extended electric and plug-in hybrid models showed the opposite trend, with their average transaction value declining markedly in the short term.

03. Year-on-Year Cumulative Foot Traffic by Store Size

In the first quarter of 2026, the year-on-year change in the number of vehicle service visits at after-sales service outlets was highly correlated with outlet size: the smaller the outlet, the more moderate the year-on-year decline. Large outlets averaged approximately 235 service visits per month; however, due to the high base effect from the same period last year, their visit volumes exhibited greater volatility, resulting in a year-on-year drop of 7%.

04. Year-on-Year Cumulative Store Visits by Different Chain Categories

In the first quarter of 2026, the year-on-year performance of store visits across different chain formats showed a clear reversal trend, with medium- and large-sized chains experiencing an 8% year-on-year decline in visit volume—significantly higher than other formats. Some of these medium- and large-sized chains had previously expanded at a rapid pace, resulting in a relatively high base in the same period last year; against the backdrop of overall weakening end-demand, their year-on-year decline has been further exacerbated, reflecting temporary pressure. The F6 Big Data Research Institute will continue to monitor subsequent trends.

05. Trends and Year-on-Year Changes in Average Transaction Value Across Different Service Types

In the first quarter of 2026, average transaction values for both tire and maintenance services increased year over year, with tire service average transaction values also posting a notable quarter-over-quarter rise compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. By contrast, average transaction values for detailing and accessories services declined both year over year and quarter over quarter, reflecting a sustained weakening in car owners’ willingness to spend on these non-essential services.

06. Year-on-Year Comparison of Factory Entries for Selected Product Categories

In the first quarter, service visits to auto after-sales shops showed marked year-on-year divergence across product categories: essential travel and safety items such as tires, batteries, and shock absorbers posted growth, while traditional maintenance items like engine oil and oil filters generally declined, reflecting a structural trend of stronger demand for essential safety components and weaker performance in routine maintenance products.

07. Average Prices by Category: MoM and YoY

In the first quarter, the average prices of gear oil and fuel filters rose significantly year on year, with increases of 7% each. Looking at the quarterly trend, prices for these two product categories have generally exhibited a modest but steady upward trajectory in recent years.

08. Year-on-Year Comparison of Vehicle Brand Service Visits

In the first quarter of 2026, performance among automotive brands in terms of vehicle visits to service centers varied: BYD led with an 8% year-on-year increase; Mercedes-Benz and Chery followed closely, both posting 3% year-on-year growth; meanwhile, most other brands—including Haval, Wuling, and Volkswagen—experienced year-on-year declines in vehicle visits, with each decline exceeding the aftermarket average of 3%.

09. Year-on-year comparison of workshop visits for selected new-energy brands

In the first quarter of 2026, most brands in the new-energy vehicle aftermarket recorded year-on-year growth in the number of vehicle service visits. Notably, Xiaomi posted a remarkable 142% year-on-year increase, driven by the low base in the same period of 2025; AITO followed closely with a 67% year-on-year rise. The robust overall growth in service visits for new-energy models underscores a significant uptick in the aftermarket’s capacity to handle service demand across various new-energy brands.

10. Industry Trends in the First Quarter of 2026

In 2025, the total number of vehicles in circulation reached 366 million, with new-energy vehicles accounting for 12.01% of the total; in the first quarter of 2026, new-vehicle sales declined year on year.

Vehicle ownership is expected to reach 366 million in 2025.

According to data from the Ministry of Public Security, by 2025 the nationwide motor vehicle stock is expected to reach 469 million, including 366 million automobiles. A total of 103 cities across the country have an automobile stock exceeding 1 million vehicles, with seven—Chengdu, Beijing, Chongqing, Suzhou, Shanghai, Zhengzhou, and Xi’an—surpassing 5 million vehicles. The stock of new-energy vehicles is projected to reach 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total automobile stock; among them, battery electric vehicles number 30.22 million, representing 68.74% of the new-energy vehicle stock—a share that has declined by approximately 1.6 percentage points compared with 2024.

New-car sales declined year-on-year in January–March.

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, cumulative retail sales of narrow-definition passenger cars totaled 4.226 million units in the first three months, down 17.4% year on year. Among them, new-energy vehicle retail sales reached 1.908 million units, a decline of 21.1% compared with the same period last year. By month, narrow-definition passenger car sales fell 13.9% year on year in January, 25.4% in February, and 15% in March. This round of year-on-year decline is primarily attributable to the combined impact of policy transition adjustments, front-loaded demand release in the earlier period, misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday, subdued consumer sentiment, and the high base in the corresponding period of the previous year.

A surge of lubricant price hikes is sweeping in. Come

On March 9, Castrol issued a communication letter on market dynamics and ongoing cooperation; on March 13, Shell released a notice of lubricant price adjustments, effective April 6; on March 16, Mobil announced a price adjustment, stating that its products would be adjusted starting April 1 and that it would strive to keep the increase around 8%; in addition, brands such as TotalEnergies, Volkswagen, Pennzoil, Gulf, and Petronas have also successively issued communication letters or notification letters addressing product price risks, signaling a sweeping wave of lubricant price hikes.

New Regulations on Power Battery Recycling

In January 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly issued the Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization Management of End-of-Life Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles, imposing stricter requirements for information transparency across the entire lifecycle—covering power battery production, sales, maintenance, replacement, dismantling, recycling, and comprehensive recovery and utilization—and stipulating that scrapped new energy vehicles must have their batteries integrated with the vehicle to prevent loopholes in the process, with battery-swap models being the sole exception.

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